India–Pakistan Conflict Due to “Terrorist Activity” Likely in 2026, Warns US Think Tank

Delhi, Dec 31: There is a possibility of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026 due to heightened terrorist activity, according to a report by a US-based think tank.

The report by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which surveyed American foreign policy experts, stated that the Trump administration had sought to bring an end to several ongoing conflicts worldwide, including tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad.

“The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand,” the report said.

India and Pakistan were involved in a brief military confrontation in May this year, following a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam in April that killed 26 civilians.

On the night of May 6, the Indian Army launched Operation Sindoor, targeting terrorist camps inside Pakistan. According to official sources, over 100 terrorists were killed and nine camps were destroyed during the operation.

Between May 7 and May 10, Pakistan attempted to strike military and civilian targets using armed drones. These incursions were successfully intercepted and neutralised by the Indian Army, with no reported casualties or damage.

Amid mounting pressure, Pakistan’s military leadership sought de-escalation. On May 10, the Director General of Military Operations of the Indian Army was contacted by his Pakistani counterpart, resulting in an understanding to cease firing and military action along the Line of Control.

The CFR report also referred to regional instability involving Pakistan and Afghanistan. Earlier this year, tensions between the two countries escalated after a Pakistani airstrike in early October aimed at eliminating Noor Wali Mehsud, the leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Afghanistan strongly responded to the strike, leading to further escalation.

The report further noted a moderate likelihood of an armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks.